Anthropic: $17B quarter, $1.5T valuation talk

Anthropic amended its S-1 with third-quarter results, and the Wall Street Journal reports that large institutional investors are pointing to a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, below the roughly $2 trillion discussed earlier. PitchBook data shows US private equity funds of $1 billion to $5 billion drew about 40% of fundraising dollars in the first three quarters of 2026, up from 32.1% in 2025, while megafunds fell below half. Also inside: Kalshi’s reported $40 billion valuation and upcoming SEC comment deadlines.

Anthropic reports nearly $17 billion in Q3 revenue and a $567 million operating loss

Anthropic added its third-quarter results to its S-1 on Monday. The Motley Fool puts revenue at just under $17 billion, up about 47% from the second quarter and about 1,127% from a year earlier. That marks slower sequential growth than the 144% reported in the second quarter and 132% in the first. Price cuts and discounts reduced third-quarter revenue by about $600 million, per the same article.

Yahoo Finance reports a third-quarter operating loss of $567 million, compared with a $974 million operating profit in the second quarter. The third-quarter results included a $2 billion noncash charge tied to a donation-matching program. Tech Startups, citing CNBC and Reuters, reports a third-quarter net loss of $23.29 billion and attributes much of it to noncash adjustments on convertible notes and derivative liabilities.

The Journal reports that large institutional investors want about $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, citing last week’s tech selloff and concerns about overexposure to AI. Some investors expect conservative pricing; others believe a debut near $1.5 trillion could trade toward $2 trillion by the end of the first session, the Journal says. Anthropic’s last private round, in May, valued it at $965 billion. The price range and share count remain blank in the amendment, per Yahoo, which also reports that part of the offering is expected to be available through retail brokerages including Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi and ETrade. The Journal reports a roadshow could start as soon as next week.

Reported private-company financials and secondary-market indications may be unaudited, incomplete, non-standard, or based on limited transaction activity. They should not be relied upon as fair value, executable pricing, or a basis for any investment decision.

Augment and/or its affiliates hold a position in Anthropic.

For more company information, recent coverage, and available market data, visit Anthropic on Augment.

PitchBook: Smaller PE funds gain fundraising share

US private equity funds sized $1 billion to $5 billion raised $83.3 billion in the first three quarters of 2026, according to PitchBook’s Q3 US PE Middle Market Report. That is around 40% of the total, up from 32.1% in 2025. Megafunds of $5 billion or more raised $95.5 billion, or 46.3%, down from 50% a year earlier.

PitchBook points to a performance gap. Among 2021-vintage funds, top-decile vehicles of $1 billion to $5 billion posted a 21.1% IRR, against 13.9% for top-decile megafunds. Funds of $1 billion to $5 billion generally outperformed from the top decile down to the median, while megafunds offered lower volatility and stronger downside protection, per PitchBook. Taylor Criswell, a PitchBook analyst, says middle-market managers can often buy at lower multiples, leaving more room to expand margins. Larger managers face a smaller pool of viable investments and more competition for assets, he says.

These figures cover US private equity funds, rather than the venture secondaries market. The 21.1% versus 13.9% IRR comparison covers top-decile funds from a single vintage; it may not hold for other vintages. Fund returns are as reported by PitchBook, and past performance does not indicate future results.

Data Point of the Day

$895.4 billion

Anthropic’s purchase commitments and leases total $895.4 billion, substantially all for computing capacity and infrastructure, per CNBC’s report on the amended S-1. Yahoo Finance reports that about $70 billion falls due within a year. The company held roughly $132 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of September. The figure is a company-reported commitment total, not a measure of cash spent to date.

Reported private-company financials and secondary-market indications may be unaudited, incomplete, non-standard, or based on limited transaction activity. They should not be relied upon as fair value, executable pricing, or a basis for any investment decision.

Augment and/or its affiliates hold a position in Anthropic.

Quick Takes

Nasdaq Private Market reports 112 IPOs in the first three quarters of 2026 against 161 a year earlier, even as proceeds rose more than 300% to about $147 billion, largely because of SpaceX. Oura, Firmus, Nscale, Bamboo, Motive and Holtec have delayed or withdrawn IPO offerings since Labor Day, per NPM.

Kalshi’s $1 billion Series G reportedly values it at $40 billion, up from $22 billion in May, per Tech Funding News, which cites Reuters and Bloomberg. Sequoia and Wellington Management co-led, the article does not report confirmation from Kalshi. Augment and/or its affiliates hold a position in Kalshi.

Hex raised a $100 million Series D at a $1.2 billion valuation, led by Peak XV, per Forbes.

GP-led deal value reached $65 billion in the first half, up 35% from a year earlier and on pace for an annual record, per Evercore data cited by White & Case. The analysis comes from White & Case, a law firm.

From the Manual

Bookbuilding

Bookbuilding is the process underwriters use to collect indications of interest from investors at different prices before an IPO is priced. Companies typically file a price range first, and the final price may land inside, above or below it. Those indications are not binding orders, so demand can change before pricing.

What We’re Watching

Anthropic’s price range and roadshow start. The Journal reports a roadshow could begin as soon as next week, and the range and share count are still blank in the amended filing. Reported valuation figures to date come from investor sources, not the company.

Augment and/or its affiliates hold a position in Anthropic.

The postponed IPO candidates. NPM lists six companies that have delayed or withdrawn offerings since Labor Day. Watch for refilings or revised terms as signs of what issuers think investors will accept.

Comment letters on the SEC’s retail-access proposals. The December 4 and December 7 deadlines apply to proposals that include six possible new accredited-investor pathways. Comment letters may reveal where market participants support the proposals or want changes.